Jones Inflation Estimate for 2006
Using an algorithm I developed approximately 1986, I have prepared an estimate for the 2006 rate of inflation.
I'm projecting a target rate of inflation of 2.45%. Of course, this will depend on vagaries in the economy and world economic-political developments.
This year my algorithm has disclosed a broad range of .67 to 5.74, (first time ever for such a broad range) although the target range remains essentially unchanged at 2.124 to 2.545.
This years' broad range indicates an underlying instability in the world economic and geopolitical situation. Continuing restructuring in the industrialized nations, continuing prospects for war, mass layoffs in the United States, fluctuations in commodities, oil prices and gold prices all converge at this point in history to present the widest range in inflation estimates to date.
As usual, only time will tell, but my estimated rate has been accurate every year within 1/10 of a percent since 1986 when I developed this algorithm.
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